A recent article out of Singapore describes the need for airline pilots, cabin crew members, and technicians in Asia over the next two decades, and the numbers suggest airlines could have trouble filling those slots. Between 2018-2037, airlines in Asia expect to need 240,000 more pilots, 317,000 cabin crew members, and 242,000 technicians. These numbers take into account both attrition through retirement and the expected doubling in airline passengers in the region.
That’s a lot of people.
The airline industry offers a dynamic example, but it is certainly not the only sector where this challenge is occurring. Companies that are expanding and need more of the same people, or that are evolving and need new kinds of people, are looking around and wondering where, exactly, those people are.
Data from the World Bank show that countries such as Singapore, Japan, China, Vietnam, and many others have seen birth rates below replacement levels, meaning their native populations are getting smaller. Even in countries with birth rates above replacement levels, such as the Philippines, population growth has still dropped lower than it was 30 years ago, even as labor force needs have been growing. If companies don’t make any changes in how they recruit, then the pool of available employees simply is not going to grow quickly enough, and if they continue to work the way they traditionally have, their demand for employees is going to grow too fast. Something (or some things) needs to change. Here are some thoughts:
Widen your recruiting You need to expand your pool of potential employees. Women, for example, continue to be underrepresented in the workforce and in leadership roles, so consider making an extra effort to recruit them (in other words, do the exact opposite of the Japanese medical school that altered test scores to purposely exclude women). Look beyond the current schools where you recruit and start sending recruiters to more institutions. People with disabilities seem almost completely absent from some countries’ workforces, so start tapping into that pool of people. Frankly, anyone who discriminates on the basis of gender, ethnicity, religion, sexual orientation, disability, or any extraneous factor, is a fool; you do not have time to be inventing reasons not to hire someone, so quit worrying about who they kiss or when they pray, and focus on finding the right people for the job.
Deepen your recruiting You think you’re having trouble recruiting people now? Imagine what it will be like in 10 years, or 20. Start encouraging interest in your industry earlier rather than waiting until people are approaching graduation. If you’re in a STEM field, host science fairs for primary and secondary schools. Help sponsor school activities that build critical thinking and problem solving; sports teams always get more visibility than debate teams, so maybe try to balance that out. A note to airlines: making kids a junior pilot of assistant flight attendant can help them develop an interest in your company at an impressionable age (consistent with safety requirements, of course; don’t offer an 8-year old a chance to land a 787).
Plan for the future For some companies, “strategic planning” means “what will we do next year?” You need to be looking farther ahead than that so you can figure out what your true talent needs are likely to be and start preparing people to meet them. Consider how you will need to work in the future, and see how you might change to work most effectively in a tight talent environment. Automation, adjusting job roles, streamlining bureaucracy, employing new learning methods, and other changes could allow you to grow the business with fewer people than current practices do. Don’t just look at technology and reorganization as ways to cut costs; instead, look at how they can help you improve performance and support growth.
Improve retention If you are going to have trouble getting new people, you better hold onto the people you have. You still need to hire new people in order to get fresh perspectives, grow into new markets, and expand into new product lines, but every person you hold onto is one more you don’t have to hire. What does it take to retain people? Try keeping them interested in their jobs, by offering stretch opportunities to people who want to try something new (and have the potential to do so) and by helping develop deeper skills for those who want to be a true expert in what they love. Help people move into leadership roles if they have the ambition and ability, but don’t push people into management if they want to be an individual contributor (as long as you still need them in that role and they are not blocking people coming up behind them). Help people strike a balance between work and personal life, and try to provide an environment where they don’t hate coming to work every day. You will be amazed by how much that helps you retain people.
For the past 20-30 years, Asian countries have seen economic growth combined with population growth decline. The effects of that were not so obvious when older generations were still working, but as we see more people leaving the workforce than coming in, the impact is starting to hit. Making more babies is not the answer to this problem for the next 20 years; making better use of the people we have is the only way to go.